Die Analysten von Juniper sind ja nicht gerade für ihr zurückhaltenden Vorhersagen bekannt. Daher ist es doch immer wieder nett zu sehen, wie sich die Zahlen von einer Schätzung zur nächsten verändern. Im Januar 2007 hatte Mobile Zeitgeist Juniper so zitiert:
The value of the mobile entertainment market, including music, games, TV, sports and infotainment, gambling and adult content is forecast to increase from $17.3 billion in 2006 to nearly $77 billion by 2011, driven by mobile TV, video rich applications and a buoyant Asian market.
Von diesen 77 Milliarden US$ Umsatz in 2011 bleibt nach der aktuellen Schätzung von Juniper nicht mehr so viel übrig. Jetzt sollen es 64 Milliarden US$ in 2012 werden. All zu ernst sollte man also Analysten und insbesondere Juniper nicht nehmen. Der Vollständigkeit halber aber noch die weiteren Erkenntnisse:
The report says that mobile music will remain the largest single sector of the mobile entertainment industry over the next five years. Revenues from music will rise from nearly $9 billion in 2007 to $17.5 billion in 2012, bolstered by the increasing availability of full-track download and streamed services, the former in both paid-for and rental formats.
Likewise, mobile games will retain its second-ranking in terms of end-user generated revenues: boosted by rapid growth in mass market „casual“ gaming, revenues are expected to rise from just under $5 billion in 2007 to nearly $16 billion in 2012.
Meanwhile, strong growth is also expected from mobile TV, with many developed (and some emerging) markets launching dedicated mobile broadcast networks within the forecast period. This, plus increased adoption of streamed TV bouquets, should see the market rise from $1.4 billion in 2007 to $11.9 billion in 2012.
According to report author Dr Windsor Holden, „With revenues from voice services declining and messaging revenues flatlining, last year finally saw a number of more sophisticated entertainment services begin to fulfil their potential and redress the balance. With more widespread penetration of 3G handsets – or entertainment-focused 2.5G handsets like the iPhone – there is likely to be a much greater surge in both the adoption and overall usage in rich media services.“
Other findings from the Juniper report include:
• Regulations and prohibitions will limit opportunities in the adult and gambling sectors, although Juniper Research envisages that restrictions on gambling services in the key US market will ease in the medium term
• China and the Far East will remain the largest regional market for mobile entertainment throughout the period covered by the report, with revenues rising from $8.5bn in 2007 to nearly $21.3bn by 2012
• Entertainment service adoption remains constrained by difficulties with the user interface, network speed and coverage and the excessive cost of data services.